Quinn Casteel
Assistant Sports Editor
As always seems to be the case with 12 vs. 5 matchups in the NCAA Tournament, the VCU (28-6 overall, 15-3 CAA)-Wichita State (26-5 overall, 18-2 MVC) game is an extremely tough one to predict—not just because they’re both mid-major teams, or the fact that they’ve faired equally well against common opponents this season, but because it is almost impossible to know how the two styles of play will fuse together on a given day.
Rob Brandenberg and VCU enter the NCAA Tournament on a six-game win streak
If basketball were a chemistry experiment, VCU’s HAVOC system would be a highly-reactive chemical that you want to keep away from others, because you don’t know what would happen if it got in with something else. At 77.9 points per game, good for 14th in the nation, Wichita State’s high-powered offense is another one of those chemicals with unpredictable responses.
Unfortunately, there’s no proven science to show what will happen when the two teams meet on the court. However, there are a few things to keep in mind going into Thursday’s game:
1) You can’t have what you can’t steal:
It’s been well-documented that VCU takes the ball away from its opponents more than any other team in the country: the Rams had 361 steals collectively, 42 more than the national runner-up Louisville. Wichita State however, takes care of the ball better than most teams VCU has faced this season having turned the ball over just 12 times per game. They also have the 32nd best assist-to-turnover ratio in the nation thanks to stellar point guard play from its flock of floor generals led by Toure’ Murry and Joe Ragland.
Getting steals against the Shockers will be tough, particularly because they have a stable of reliable ball handlers, but Briante Weber has proved he has the ability to get into the head of even the most sure-handed guards. Even in its six losses this season, VCU forced 11, 14, 14, 16, 16 and 17 turnovers. It’s almost a given that Wichita State will turn the ball over more than its average, but if VCU can get the Shockers to give it up 20 times or more the odds will be stacked highly in the Rams’ favor.
2) Clash of styles:
Shaka Smart said before the CAA title game that VCU and Drexel presented a “Clash of styles.” VCU’s full-court game paired with Drexel’s slow, grind-it-out pace clashed in a big way with the Rams dominating the first half and the Dragons punching them back in the second half. Look for a similar trend, but a much higher score on Thursday when VCU faces Wichita State.
As we saw in the CAA Tournament, VCU thrives at the beginning of games when teams are still getting used to the constant pressure the Rams bring. There will be stretches where the game plays to VCU’s pace, with turnovers and broken plays leading to points. There will also be stretches that play into the Shockers’ favor, which is a more traditional but equally potent style; it will simply be a matter of who takes advantage of the tide of the game at key junctures.
3) Which Wichita State will we see?
The one that dropped 89 points against (at the time) 17th-ranked Creighton on Feb. 11, or the team that scored just 64 in a loss to Illinois State in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament?
The Shockers scored 80 or more points 14 times this season, and are one of the most efficient offenses in the entire country with a 10th-ranked team field goal percentage of 48.5 percent. The loss in the conference tournament however, showed that there are chinks in the armor. The Rams have not allowed any team to reach the 80 point plateau this season and although they’ve had their inconsistencies offensively, they’ve been as solid as any defensive team in the country.
0 comments:
Post a Comment